Did Hezbollah Really Win?

by Maurice Lavian         August 2006

Also see: The Israeli/Hezbollah War Failure to Defeat Hezbollah Diminishes Israel's Value to the U.S. Hezbollah Leader Regrets Kidnappings Ex-Mossad Chief Says Hezbollah Lost War Israel VS Hezbollah: Think Again Arab Bloggers Dare to Dissent

"We did not think, even 1 percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not," -Hezbollah Leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah in an interview with Lebanon's NTV Television Station. August 27 2006 Source

Ever since the cessation of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, following the passage of U.N. Resolution 1701, the overwhelming impression around the world, including in Israel, is that Hezbollah won the conflict. Many point out that Israel went into Lebanon on July 12 2006 with the intention of freeing their 2 soldiers and disarming Hezbollah. Yet after 34 days of fierce fighting, none of those objectives were met. Rather, over 800 Lebanese have been killed, most of them civilians, and over 150 Israelis have been killed, most of them soldiers. Hezbollah is now using the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers to bolster its image in Lebanon and the Muslim world by claiming it beat the Middle East’s most powerful army. While Israel certainly didn’t win anything from this war, is it really fair to say that Hezbollah won? Hezbollah attacked Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers with the intention of forcing Israel to negotiate a prisoner swap, a goal that has worked before. Yet, following the kidnappings, the Israeli army gave a harsh response that even Hezbollah admitted it didn't expect. It is estimated that over 750,000 Lebanese were displaced from their homes following the Israeli incursions. While most of these refugees blamed Israel (like most Muslims do for all their problems) a good number of them acknowledged that Hezbollah was partly responsible for their displacement. Even some Arab bloggers dared to acknowledge that Israel was only defending its people in the operation. Many western governments, and even Russia, backed Israel over Hezbollah, and this became especially apparent when all members of the G8 in St. Petersburg, Russia, endorsed a statement backing Israel. Such an acknowledgment was unheard of prior to this conflict. Even moderate Arab countries, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, initially condemned Hezbollah for the outbreak of violence. The recent Hezbollah-initiated conflict made Sunni Arab governments more cautious of Iran and other Shiite militia groups and this could potentially isolate Hezbollah and other Shiite militia groups from the rest of the Muslim world. On top of that, the Hezbollah-initiated fighting in Lebanon led to U.N. Resolution 1701, which calls for foreign troops to be deployed into southern Lebanon, something that Nasrallah would have had a fit over prior to this war. The resolution also allows Israel to continue “defensive operations”, this is another thing Hezbollah isn’t happy about. The resolution, like 1559, calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament. While Hezbollah ignored 1559, this time the Security Council is going to give the resolution some “teeth” to make sure it is enforced. While Hezbollah is still intact and fully armed, this resolution could eventually lead to the permanent disarmament of Hezbollah, which is something Lebanon, Israel, the surrounding Arab countries, and the rest of the world would love to see. If Nasrallah had known that his attacks and kidnappings of Israeli soldiers would lead to such a harsh response from Israel, anger from thousands of displaced Lebanese, condemnation by surrounding Sunni Arab leaders and even Arab bloggers, isolation throughout the Muslim world, the whole western world rallying behind Israel, foreign troops monitoring the south Lebanon border, and a new initiative by the world to finally disarm the group, I don’t think Hezbollah would have done it.

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